← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 29, 10:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: MacKenzie Gore (ERA 4.82, WHIP 1.31) · home: Casey Legumina (ERA 3.95, WHIP 1.32)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Los Angeles Dodgers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won leg 2: Tampa Bay Rays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 won leg 3: Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 6.39 | $10.78 | +19% | +10.78 | won |
Tampa Bay Rays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.76 | $7.63 | +4% | +7.63 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 55% | 1.76 |
| Texas Rangers win | 45% | 2.24 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers win | 2.01 | 2.18 | +8.4% | |
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 1.70 | 1.71 | +0.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tampa Bay Rays | Texas Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| elo | 1523.14 | 1503.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.93 | 10.34 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.40 |