← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 29, 01:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Michael Lorenzen (ERA 6.53, WHIP 1.79) · home: Michael King (ERA 3.24, WHIP 1.17)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.56 | Portfolio | $21.25 | 1.56 | $11.90 | +5% | +11.90 | won |
leg 1: San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.52 won leg 2: Houston Astros win in Los Angeles Angels v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90 won leg 3: Toronto Blue Jays win in Washington Nationals v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 6.46 | $10.92 | +24% | -2.00 | lost |
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.52 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.52 | $5.24 | +9% | +5.24 | won |
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.52 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.52 | $5.24 | +9% | +5.24 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 64% | 2.24 |
| Colorado Rockies win | 36% | 13.41 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies win | 2.46 | 9.00 | +266.0% | |
| San Diego Padres win | 1.50 | 1.36 | -9.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Diego Padres | Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| elo | 1511.11 | 1383.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.33 | 0.22 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 2.33 | 2.31 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 6.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 4.20 |