Washington Nationals 8–6 Toronto Blue Jays

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Jul 28, 10:45 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Shane Bieber (ERA 4.7, WHIP 1.43) · home: Cade Cavalli (ERA 3.58, WHIP 1.29)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.52 won leg 2: Houston Astros win in Los Angeles Angels v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90 won leg 3: Toronto Blue Jays win in Washington Nationals v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	6.46	$10.92	+24%	-2.00	lost
Toronto Blue Jays win in Washington Nationals v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.24	$12.36	+6%	-10.00	lost
Toronto Blue Jays win in Washington Nationals v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.19	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.19	$11.87	+4%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Washington Nationals win	58%	1.74
Toronto Blue Jays win	42%	23.43

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Toronto Blue Jays win		2.14	23.43	+994.8%
Washington Nationals win		1.60	1.04	-34.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Toronto Blue Jays	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	3	0	6
Washington Nationals	4	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	—	8

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Washington Nationals	Toronto Blue Jays
congestion 21d	13.00	14.00
elo	1476.57	1492.46
elo momentum (last 5)	6.65	5.04
matches since win	1.00	0.00
rest days	1.00	1.00
runs against avg (last 10)	4.80	4.10
runs for avg (last 10)	7.00	2.30