← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 29, 01:38 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Peter Lambert (ERA 3.03, WHIP 1.12) · home: Reid Detmers (ERA 4.05, WHIP 1.1)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.52 won leg 2: Houston Astros win in Los Angeles Angels v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90 won leg 3: Toronto Blue Jays win in Washington Nationals v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 6.46 | $10.92 | +24% | -2.00 | lost |
Houston Astros win in Los Angeles Angels v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.90 | $8.96 | +7% | +8.96 | won |
Houston Astros win in Los Angeles Angels v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.90 | $8.96 | +7% | +8.96 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 50% | 1.95 |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 50% | 2.34 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 1.86 | 1.62 | -12.9% | |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 1.83 | 2.34 | +28.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Los Angeles Angels | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| elo | 1422.32 | 1499.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.01 | 9.29 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.60 |