← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Jul 24, 11:15 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Trey Yesavage (ERA 3.78, WHIP 1.16) · home: Patrick Sandoval (ERA 4.82, WHIP 1.71)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.82 | Portfolio | $16.95 | 1.82 | $13.90 | +6% | +13.90 | won |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.82 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.82 | $8.20 | +15% | +8.20 | won |
leg 1: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 won leg 2: San Diego Padres win in Miami Marlins v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 won leg 3: Kansas City Royals win in Detroit Tigers v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.73 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 10.65 | $19.30 | +18% | -2.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +7% | +7.03 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 55% | 1.82 |
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 45% | 2.59 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 2.05 | 2.59 | +26.2% | |
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.67 | 1.52 | -9.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Boston Red Sox | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | — | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boston Red Sox | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| elo | 1539.94 | 1490.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.80 | -14.14 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.00 | 1.17 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 5.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 2.90 |