Miami Marlins 2–4 San Diego Padres

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Jul 24, 11:10 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Germán Márquez (ERA 5.24, WHIP 1.54)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 won leg 2: San Diego Padres win in Miami Marlins v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 won leg 3: Kansas City Royals win in Detroit Tigers v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.73 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	10.65	$19.30	+18%	-2.00	lost
San Diego Padres win in Miami Marlins v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29	Drought fade	$10.00	2.29	$12.88	+6%	+12.88	won
San Diego Padres win in Miami Marlins v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.29	$12.88	+6%	+12.88	won
San Diego Padres win in Miami Marlins v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.29	$12.88	+6%	+12.88	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Miami Marlins win	55%	18.75
San Diego Padres win	45%	2.29

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
San Diego Padres win		2.14	1.04	-51.5%
Miami Marlins win		1.60	18.75	+1075.1%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
San Diego Padres	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	4
Miami Marlins	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Miami Marlins	San Diego Padres
congestion 21d	12.00	13.00
elo	1490.69	1500.59
elo momentum (last 5)	-13.35	7.01
matches since win	9.00	2.00
rest days	1.96	1.29
runs against avg (last 10)	4.70	5.00
runs for avg (last 10)	3.10	6.30