Detroit Tigers 2–1 Kansas City Royals

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Jul 24, 10:40 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Beck Way (ERA 3.22, WHIP 1.52) · home: Tarik Skubal (ERA 2.83, WHIP 0.93)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Kansas City Royals win in Detroit Tigers v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.49	Portfolio	$13.42	3.49	$33.42	+15%	-13.42	lost
leg 1: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 won leg 2: San Diego Padres win in Miami Marlins v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 won leg 3: Kansas City Royals win in Detroit Tigers v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.73 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	10.65	$19.30	+18%	-2.00	lost
Kansas City Royals win in Detroit Tigers v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.73	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.73	$17.33	+4%	-10.00	lost
Kansas City Royals win in Detroit Tigers v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.59	$15.88	-1%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Detroit Tigers win	66%	1.52
Kansas City Royals win	34%	3.49

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Kansas City Royals win		1.09	3.34	+205.9%
Detroit Tigers win		1.44	1.34	-6.5%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Kansas City Royals	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Detroit Tigers	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—	2

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Detroit Tigers	Kansas City Royals
congestion 21d	13.00	13.00
elo	1504.85	1449.79
elo momentum (last 5)	3.40	-2.50
matches since win	0.00	1.00
rest days	1.00	1.00
runs against avg (last 10)	3.60	5.80
runs for avg (last 10)	4.20	3.60