← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Jul 21, 10:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Justin Wrobleski (ERA 2.69, WHIP 1.02) · home: Zack Wheeler (ERA 2.13, WHIP 0.89)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Los Angeles Dodgers win in Philadelphia Phillies v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.21 | Portfolio | $14.74 | 2.21 | $17.84 | +8% | +17.84 | won |
leg 1: Los Angeles Dodgers win in Philadelphia Phillies v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.21 won leg 2: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won leg 3: Washington Nationals win in Colorado Rockies v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.99 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.13 | $12.26 | +52% | +12.26 | won |
Los Angeles Dodgers win in Philadelphia Phillies v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.21 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.21 | $12.10 | +17% | +12.10 | won |
Los Angeles Dodgers win in Philadelphia Phillies v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.05 | $10.51 | +8% | +10.51 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 53% | 3.80 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 47% | 2.21 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 1.90 | 1.29 | -31.7% | |
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.06 | 3.80 | +258.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Philadelphia Phillies | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| elo | 1545.63 | 1594.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.31 | -3.80 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.50 |