Colorado Rockies 0–8 Washington Nationals

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 22, 07:10 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Cade Cavalli (ERA 3.78, WHIP 1.31) · home: Gabriel Hughes (ERA 3.14, WHIP 1.12)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: Los Angeles Dodgers win in Philadelphia Phillies v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.21 won leg 2: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won leg 3: Washington Nationals win in Colorado Rockies v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.99 won	Chaos parlay	$2.00	7.13	$12.26	+52%	+12.26	won
Washington Nationals win in Colorado Rockies v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.99	Steam confusion	$10.00	1.99	$9.90	+13%	+9.90	won
Washington Nationals win in Colorado Rockies v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.99	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.99	$9.90	+13%	+9.90	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Washington Nationals win	54%	1.99
Colorado Rockies win	46%	2.24

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Washington Nationals win		1.29	1.75	+35.2%
Colorado Rockies win		1.29	2.14	+65.4%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Washington Nationals	0	0	0	0	1	0	6	1	0	8
Colorado Rockies	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Colorado Rockies	Washington Nationals
congestion 21d	13.00	11.00
elo	1385.23	1469.92
elo momentum (last 5)	-2.24	6.14
matches since win	0.00	1.00
rest days	0.77	0.77
runs against avg (last 10)	5.70	6.40
runs for avg (last 10)	4.20	5.70