← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 22, 06:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Christian Scott (ERA 2.87, WHIP 1.22) · home: Logan Henderson (ERA 2.97, WHIP 0.93)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.72 | Portfolio | $30.59 | 1.72 | $22.02 | +10% | +22.02 | won |
leg 1: Los Angeles Dodgers win in Philadelphia Phillies v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.21 won leg 2: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won leg 3: Washington Nationals win in Colorado Rockies v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.99 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.13 | $12.26 | +52% | +12.26 | won |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.62 | $6.21 | +15% | +6.21 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 58% | 1.72 |
| New York Mets win | 42% | 4.51 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 1.94 | 2.24 | +15.6% | |
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.20 | 1.69 | +40.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milwaukee Brewers | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| elo | 1582.84 | 1471.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.48 | 10.27 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.90 |