Los Angeles Angels 3–2 St. Louis Cardinals

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Jul 21, 02:00 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Kyle Leahy (ERA 3.73, WHIP 1.41) · home: José Soriano (ERA 3.49, WHIP 1.29)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Angels v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.07	Portfolio	$16.98	2.07	$18.17	+8%	-16.98	lost
St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Angels v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.07	Drought fade	$10.00	2.07	$10.70	+18%	-10.00	lost
leg 1: San Francisco Giants win in Seattle Mariners v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66 lost leg 2: St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Angels v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90 lost leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	8.44	$14.88	+24%	-2.00	lost
St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Angels v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.90	$8.96	+7%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Los Angeles Angels win	51%	1.93
St. Louis Cardinals win	49%	2.07

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
St. Louis Cardinals win		1.83	1.90	+3.8%
Los Angeles Angels win		1.86	1.93	+3.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
St. Louis Cardinals	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
Los Angeles Angels	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	3

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Los Angeles Angels	St. Louis Cardinals
congestion 21d	11.00	13.00
elo	1422.90	1501.83
elo momentum (last 5)	-8.34	-0.74
matches since win	0.00	2.00
rest days	1.25	1.24
runs against avg (last 10)	4.40	3.80
runs for avg (last 10)	2.20	5.20