Seattle Mariners 6–3 San Francisco Giants

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 19, 08:10 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Robbie Ray (ERA 3.38, WHIP 1.27) · home: Logan Gilbert (ERA 3.32, WHIP 0.99)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: San Francisco Giants win in Seattle Mariners v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66 lost leg 2: St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Angels v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90 lost leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	8.44	$14.88	+24%	-2.00	lost
San Francisco Giants win in Seattle Mariners v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.66	$16.59	+8%	-10.00	lost
San Francisco Giants win in Seattle Mariners v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.46	$14.59	+0%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Seattle Mariners win	61%	1.62
San Francisco Giants win	39%	2.66

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
San Francisco Giants win		2.34	2.66	+13.5%
Seattle Mariners win		1.28	1.57	+22.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
San Francisco Giants	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3
Seattle Mariners	0	0	0	2	1	1	2	0	—	6

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Seattle Mariners	San Francisco Giants
congestion 21d	11.00	11.00
elo	1514.20	1480.34
elo momentum (last 5)	-6.20	5.22
matches since win	0.00	1.00
rest days	0.83	0.83
runs against avg (last 10)	3.80	4.40
runs for avg (last 10)	3.90	4.50