← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Jul 20, 11:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Freddy Peralta (ERA 4.66, WHIP 1.44) · home: Jacob Misiorowski (ERA 1.62, WHIP 0.76)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.53 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.53 | $5.30 | +9% | +5.30 | won |
leg 1: Los Angeles Dodgers win in Philadelphia Phillies v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 lost leg 2: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won leg 3: Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 6.62 | $11.25 | +50% | -2.00 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.62 | $6.21 | +14% | +6.21 | won |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | Portfolio | $13.49 | 1.62 | $8.38 | +4% | +8.38 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 59% | 2.01 |
| New York Mets win | 41% | 2.81 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 2.19 | 2.66 | +21.6% | |
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.67 | 1.50 | -10.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — | 8 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milwaukee Brewers | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| elo | 1585.83 | 1468.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.62 | 1.92 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.23 | 1.25 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.80 |