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Philadelphia Phillies 10–7 Los Angeles Dodgers

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Jul 20, 11:00 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Emmet Sheehan (ERA 4.81, WHIP 1.24) · home: Cristopher Sánchez (ERA 2.62, WHIP 1.19)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
Los Angeles Dodgers win in Philadelphia Phillies v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20
Portfolio$14.632.20$17.56+8%-14.63lost
leg 1: Los Angeles Dodgers win in Philadelphia Phillies v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 lost
leg 2: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won
leg 3: Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 won
Chaos parlay$2.006.62$11.25+50%-2.00lost
Los Angeles Dodgers win in Philadelphia Phillies v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24
Elo value MLB$10.002.24$12.36+17%-10.00lost
Los Angeles Dodgers win in Philadelphia Phillies v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24
MLB dog variance$10.002.24$12.36+17%-10.00lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Philadelphia Phillies win57%1.81
Los Angeles Dodgers win43%46.79

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Los Angeles Dodgers win2.1946.79+2039.5%
Philadelphia Phillies win1.621.74+7.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
Los Angeles Dodgers0001021037
Philadelphia Phillies04000411—10

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPhiladelphia PhilliesLos Angeles Dodgers
congestion 21d12.0012.00
elo1541.911598.64
elo momentum (last 5)-0.45-6.30
matches since win1.001.00
rest days1.230.99
runs against avg (last 10)3.504.50
runs for avg (last 10)2.903.90