← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Jul 20, 10:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Joe Ryan (ERA 2.85, WHIP 1.05) · home: Tanner Bibee (ERA 3.9, WHIP 1.15)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.07 | Portfolio | $27.81 | 2.07 | $29.76 | +14% | +29.76 | won |
leg 1: Los Angeles Dodgers win in Philadelphia Phillies v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 lost leg 2: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won leg 3: Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 6.62 | $11.25 | +50% | -2.00 | lost |
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.83 | $8.27 | +13% | +8.27 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 51% | 2.01 |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 49% | 2.07 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 1.83 | 1.83 | +0.2% | |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 1.76 | 2.02 | +14.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | — | 13 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cleveland Guardians | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| elo | 1520.08 | 1467.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.92 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 1.21 | 1.18 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.10 |