Los Angeles Angels 0–7 Detroit Tigers

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 19, 02:07 AM UTC

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.65	Portfolio	$13.52	2.65	$22.31	+9%	-13.52	lost
leg 1: Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 lost leg 2: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 lost leg 3: Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 won	Chaos parlay	$2.00	9.31	$16.62	+32%	-2.00	lost
Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.52	$15.22	+13%	-10.00	lost
Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.29	$12.88	+3%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Detroit Tigers win	60%	1.68
Los Angeles Angels win	40%	2.66

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Detroit Tigers win		1.60	1.68	+5.3%
Los Angeles Angels win		2.16	2.29	+5.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Detroit Tigers	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7
Los Angeles Angels	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Los Angeles Angels	Detroit Tigers
congestion 21d	11.00	12.00
elo	1424.65	1497.44
elo momentum (last 5)	-5.59	2.71
matches since win	3.00	0.00
rest days	1.02	1.02
runs against avg (last 10)	4.90	3.10
runs for avg (last 10)	2.40	4.60