← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 18, 01:40 AM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 lost leg 2: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 lost leg 3: Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 9.31 | $16.62 | +32% | -2.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.09 | $10.95 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.93 | $9.32 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals win | 50% | 1.97 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 50% | 2.09 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals win | 1.83 | 1.97 | +7.9% | |
| Oakland Athletics win | 1.83 | 1.86 | +1.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 23 |
| Oakland Athletics | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oakland Athletics | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| elo | 1444.38 | 1463.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.99 | -16.93 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 5.31 | 5.34 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 5.00 |