← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 19, 12:08 AM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 lost leg 2: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 lost leg 3: Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 9.31 | $16.62 | +32% | -2.00 | lost |
Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.76 | $7.63 | +7% | +7.63 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 57% | 1.79 |
| San Francisco Giants win | 43% | 2.63 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants win | 1.97 | 2.50 | +26.9% | |
| Seattle Mariners win | 1.67 | 1.57 | -6.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Seattle Mariners | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Seattle Mariners | San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| elo | 1512.57 | 1481.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.34 | 9.73 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.92 | 0.92 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.60 |