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TSL-deephistory-rederive

← all backtests · poisson_tw · seasons 2010-11, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16, 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25 · markets 1x2

2146
bets placed · hit rate 25.5%
$-3380.86
P&L · ROI -12.2% on $27614 staked
0.73%
CLV · avg edge vs closing line
0.2023 / 0.1956
Brier model/market · close is sharper

Calibration (all scored predictions)

0%0%25%25%50%50%75%75%100%100%perfectbin 0.0-0.1 · n=71 · predicted 7.2% · actual 9.9%bin 0.1-0.2 · n=469 · predicted 16.0% · actual 15.4%bin 0.2-0.3 · n=1895 · predicted 25.9% · actual 26.0%bin 0.3-0.4 · n=1016 · predicted 34.1% · actual 32.8%bin 0.4-0.5 · n=623 · predicted 44.5% · actual 45.3%bin 0.5-0.6 · n=354 · predicted 54.3% · actual 54.0%bin 0.6-0.7 · n=183 · predicted 64.4% · actual 72.1%bin 0.7-0.8 · n=62 · predicted 74.5% · actual 69.4%bin 0.8-0.9 · n=13 · predicted 82.3% · actual 76.9%predicted probabilityobserved frequency

Calibration table

BinnPredictedActual
0.0-0.1717.2%9.9%
0.1-0.246916.0%15.4%
0.2-0.31,89525.9%26.0%
0.3-0.41,01634.1%32.8%
0.4-0.562344.5%45.3%
0.5-0.635454.3%54.0%
0.6-0.718364.4%72.1%
0.7-0.86274.5%69.4%
0.8-0.91382.3%76.9%

Biggest swingsthe bets that moved this run most, either way

MatchMarketPickModel %Market %StakeP&L
Buyuksehyr v Ad. DemirsporMatch resultAd. Demirspor win13.1%5.6%$20.00+351.40
Besiktas v KonyasporMatch resultKonyaspor win15.0%11.7%$20.00+249.60
Ad. Demirspor v BesiktasMatch resultAd. Demirspor win28.2%16.7%$20.00+141.60
Galatasaray v GaziantepMatch resultGaziantep win22.9%—$20.00+140.00
Kasimpasa v AkhisarsporMatch resultAkhisarspor win20.2%15.9%$19.13+121.67
Besiktas v AkhisarsporMatch resultAkhisarspor win15.1%11.2%$13.38+116.27
Kayserispor v Mersin Idman YurduMatch resultMersin Idman Yurdu win29.8%18.0%$20.00+112.60
Besiktas v Mersin Idman YurduMatch resultMersin Idman Yurdu win15.9%—$13.56+108.48
Besiktas v GaziantepMatch resultDraw24.3%13.5%$20.00+103.00
Akhisarspor v GalatasarayMatch resultAkhisarspor win25.8%17.1%$20.00+102.40
Galatasaray v EyupsporMatch resultDraw28.5%12.4%$20.00+102.20
Besiktas v GenclerbirligiMatch resultDraw25.6%17.0%$20.00+101.00
Buyuksehyr v KasimpasaMatch resultKasimpasa win33.0%15.1%$20.00+100.00
Bursaspor v GaziantepMatch resultGaziantep win15.1%15.5%$12.04+99.33
Kasimpasa v GenclerbirligiMatch resultGenclerbirligi win25.8%23.0%$20.00+94.20