← Süper Lig 2015-16 · Sat, Feb 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor win | 57% | 41% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 29% | 3.84 | value: +11% |
| Mersin Idman Yurdu win | 18% | 30% | 5.40 | value: +61% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kayserispor | Mersin Idman Yurdu |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 214.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1527.69 | 1480.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.04 | -3.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 22.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 0.61 |
| state index | 0.27 | -0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |