← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 1, 04:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Galatasaray win | 80% | 52% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 29% | 8.00 | value: +128% ⚠ |
| Eyupspor win | 8% | 20% | 13.96 | value: +173% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Galatasaray −2 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Eyupspor −2 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 74% | 1.30 |
| Under | 26% | 3.61 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 28 | Shots | 5 |
| 14 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 22 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.