← Süper Lig 2012-13 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buyuksehyr win | 63% | 40% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 27% | 4.45 | value: +21% |
| Kasimpasa win | 15% | 33% | 6.45 | value: +113% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Buyuksehyr | Kasimpasa |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1540.85 | 1559.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.49 | -17.39 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| league points | 36.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.42 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |