← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, May 25, 04:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Buyuksehyr win | 86% | 68% | 1.07 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 19% | 11.00 | value: +108% |
| Ad. Demirspor win | 5% | 13% | 21.00 | value: +174% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Buyuksehyr −2.75 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Ad. Demirspor −2.75 | 47% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 82% | 1.18 |
| Under | 18% | 5.90 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 32 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 0 |
| 20 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.