← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Thu, Feb 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas win | 68% | 54% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 30% | 4.50 | value: +34% |
| Mersin Idman Yurdu win | 11% | 16% | 9.00 | value: +43% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Besiktas | Mersin Idman Yurdu |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 185.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1717.60 | 1511.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.78 | -43.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| league points | 45.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.96 | 1.17 |
| state index | 0.94 | -1.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |