← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Mon, Dec 16, 04:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Besiktas win | 62% | 46% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 26% | 4.73 | value: +22% |
| Ad. Demirspor win | 17% | 28% | 5.77 | value: +63% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Besiktas +1 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Ad. Demirspor +1 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 65% | 1.48 |
| Under | 35% | 2.77 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 18 |
| 7 | On target | 10 |
| 2 | Corners | 14 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.