wc2026-intpool-replay

← all backtests · poisson_tw · seasons 2026 · markets 1x2

122

bets placed · hit rate 27.9%

$-173.54

P&L · ROI -9.8% on $1772 staked

0.09%

CLV · avg edge vs closing line

0.1688 / 0.1632

Brier model/market · close is sharper

Calibration (all scored predictions)

Calibration table

Bin	n	Predicted	Actual
0.0-0.1	32	5.5%	9.4%
0.1-0.2	53	15.0%	5.7%
0.2-0.3	77	24.9%	22.1%
0.3-0.4	56	33.9%	33.9%
0.4-0.5	23	43.7%	52.2%
0.5-0.6	22	56.0%	77.3%
0.6-0.7	18	64.1%	72.2%
0.7-0.8	12	73.9%	83.3%
0.8-0.9	10	84.9%	60.0%
0.9-1.0	3	95.4%	66.7%

Biggest swingsthe bets that moved this run most, either way

Match	Market	Pick	Model %	Market %	Stake	P&L
Australia v Turkey	Match result	Australia win	37.2%	18.2%	$20.00	+85.00
Portugal v Congo DR	Match result	Draw	28.1%	18.0%	$20.00	+85.00
South Africa v South Korea	Match result	South Africa win	25.4%	18.0%	$19.52	+82.96
Ecuador v Germany	Match result	Ecuador win	33.2%	21.8%	$20.00	+66.60
Brazil v Norway	Match result	Norway win	30.4%	22.4%	$20.00	+66.40
Saudi Arabia v Uruguay	Match result	Draw	33.1%	23.8%	$20.00	+60.00
Brazil v Morocco	Match result	Draw	34.2%	25.0%	$20.00	+56.00
Turkey v United States	Match result	Turkey win	62.7%	29.8%	$20.00	+44.00
England v Argentina	Match result	Argentina win	36.6%	31.3%	$16.40	+34.60
United States v Belgium	Match result