← FIFA World Cup 2026 · group stage · Thu, Jun 25, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Tori Penso, USA
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany win | 56% | 36% | 1.77 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 30% | 4.50 | value: +37% |
| Ecuador win | 22% | 34% | 4.70 | value: +59% |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Leroy Sané · Germany |
| 9' | ⚽ | Nilson Angulo · Ecuador |
| 43' | 🟨 | Piero Hincapié · Ecuador |
| 44' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Pavlovic · Germany |
| 50' | 🟨 | Alan Franco · Ecuador |
| 77' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Plata · Ecuador |
| 89' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Plata · Ecuador |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ecuador | Germany |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 693.00 | 1028.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d |
| duration | REGULAR |
| group | GROUP_E |
| stage | GROUP_STAGE |
| venue | MetLife Stadium |
| 6.00 |
| 6.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 2.98 |
| elo | 1850.82 | 1921.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.86 | 5.45 |
| eye test v1 | 0.91 | 1.73 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.22 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 2.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 1.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 88.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 3.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.98 | 1.80 |
| solidity v1 | 1.04 | 0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.17 | 7.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 27.93 | 28.19 |
| state index | 0.59 | 1.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 0.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.10 | 2.48 |