← FIFA World Cup 2026 · last 32 · Mon, Jun 29, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Jalal Jayed, Morocco · after extra time · pens 3–4
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Germany win | 71% | 66% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 21% | 5.45 | value: +13% |
| Paraguay win | 10% | 13% | 11.00 | value: +41% |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 56% | 67% | 1.78 | value: +19% |
| Under | 44% | 33% | 2.25 | fair |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| No | 53% | 40% | 1.83 | fair |
| Yes | 47% | 60% | 2.04 | value: +23% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over 9.5 | 50% | 1.91 |
| Under 9.5 | 50% | 1.91 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
How many cards?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.10 |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 6 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | PENALTY_SHOOTOUT |
| final away goals | 5 |
| final home goals | 4 |
| qualified | away |
| stage | LAST_32 |
| venue | Gillette Stadium |