← FIFA World Cup 2026 · group stage · Fri, Jun 26, 02:00 AM UTC · ref: Mustapha Ghorbal, Algeria
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States win | 46% | 43% | 2.20 | fair |
| Turkey win | 29% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 31% | 4.10 | value: +27% |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Auston Trusty · United States |
| 10' | ⚽ | Arda Güler · Turkey |
| 19' | 🟨 | Sebastian Berhalter · United States |
| 31' | ⚽ | Baris Alper Yilmaz · Turkey |
| 49' | ⚽ | Sebastian Berhalter · United States |
| 90'+8' | ⚽ | Kaan Ayhan · Turkey |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Turkey | United States |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1029.00 | 117.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| duration | REGULAR |
| group | GROUP_D |
| stage | GROUP_STAGE |
| venue | SoFi Stadium |
| 4.20 |
| 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 2.28 |
| elo | 1780.50 | 1819.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.31 | 40.02 |
| eye test v1 | 0.61 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.86 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | — |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.98 | -0.06 |
| solidity v1 | -0.23 | 0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.14 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.82 | 27.13 |
| state index | 0.13 | 1.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | 0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 0.55 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.19 |