WC retro sim 2026-06-26

← all runs · poisson_tw v2 · 10,000 iterations · seed 424242 · as of 2026-06-26

Who wins each match

Date	Stage	Match	Home	Draw	Away	3+ goals	BTTS
6/26/2026	group stage	Turkey v United States	26.3%	30.9%	42.8%	46%	53%
6/26/2026	group stage	Paraguay v Australia	46.8%	30.1%	23.2%	47%	52%
6/26/2026	group stage	Norway v France	55.0%	24.0%	21.0%	66%	65%
6/26/2026	group stage	Senegal v Iraq	72.4%	17.5%	10.1%	72%	60%
6/27/2026	group stage	Uruguay v Spain	39.2%	31.2%	29.6%	47%	54%
6/27/2026	group stage	Cape Verde Islands v Saudi Arabia	68.8%	21.5%	9.7%	56%	48%

Specthe reproducible recipe — same spec + seed = identical run

{
  "to": "2026-06-27",
  "from": "2026-06-26",
  "kind": "fixtures",
  "name": "WC retro sim 2026-06-26",
  "as_of": "2026-06-26",
  "model": {
    "shrinkage": 3
  },
  "competition": "WC"
}