← FIFA World Cup 2026 · group stage · Fri, Jun 26, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France win | 70% | 21% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 24% | 6.00 | value: +44% |
| Norway win | 13% | 55% | 8.20 | value: +351% ⚠ |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Ousmane Dembélé · France |
| 10' | 🟨 | Patrick Berg · Norway |
| 20' | ⚽ | Ousmane Dembélé · France |
| 21' | ⚽ | Thelo Aasgaard · Norway |
| 32' | ⚽ | Ousmane Dembélé · France |
| 74' | 🟨 | Aurélien Tchouaméni · France |
| 90'+4' | ⚽ | Désiré Doué · France |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Norway | France |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.34 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.88 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1943.00 | 5108.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| duration | REGULAR |
| group | GROUP_I |
| stage | GROUP_STAGE |
| venue | Gillette Stadium |
| — |
| 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 5.00 |
| elo | 1828.94 | 2010.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.19 | 32.65 |
| eye test v1 | 1.15 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | — | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | — | 68.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.79 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.50 | 89.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.50 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.14 | 0.79 |
| solidity v1 | 0.43 | 1.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.50 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 4.63 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.63 | 27.52 |
| state index | 1.19 | 2.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 0.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.36 | 1.55 |