← FIFA World Cup 2026 · group stage · Sat, Jun 27, 12:00 AM UTC · ref: François Letexier, France
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Cape Verde Islands win | 37% | 69% | 2.74 | value: +88% ⚠ |
| Saudi Arabia win | 34% | 10% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 22% | 3.60 | fair |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 4 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | REGULAR |
| group | GROUP_H |
| stage | GROUP_STAGE |
| venue | NRG Stadium |