← FIFA World Cup 2026 · group stage · Fri, Jun 26, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senegal win | 80% | 72% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 17% | 8.00 | value: +40% |
| Iraq win | 7% | 10% | 15.00 | value: +52% |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Habib Diarra · Senegal |
| 13' | 🟥 | Rebin Sulaka · Iraq |
| 18' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Seck · Senegal |
| 56' | ⚽ | Ismaïla Sarr · Senegal |
| 59' | ⚽ | Pape Gueye · Senegal |
| 71' | ⚽ | Pape Gueye · Senegal |
| 75' | 🟨 | Amir Al-Ammari · Iraq |
| 81' | 🟨 | Pape Gueye · Senegal |
| 82' | ⚽ | Iliman Ndiaye · Senegal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Merchas Doski · Iraq |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Senegal | Iraq |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.05 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 329.00 | 421.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| duration | REGULAR |
| group | GROUP_I |
| stage | GROUP_STAGE |
| venue | BMO Field |
| 5.20 |
| — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | — |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | — |
| elo | 1824.48 | 1641.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.19 | -42.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | -1.90 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.80 | — |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | — |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 83.50 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 41.50 |
| rest days | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | -0.43 |
| solidity v1 | -1.27 | -2.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 0.50 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 0.50 |
| squad age | 29.22 | 26.07 |
| state index | 0.63 | -1.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.59 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 0.72 |