← FIFA World Cup 2026 · group stage · Fri, Jun 26, 02:00 AM UTC · ref: Clement Turpin, France
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Draw | 40% | 30% | 2.50 | fair |
| Paraguay win | 37% | 47% | 2.64 | value: +23% |
| Australia win | 23% | 23% | 4.40 | fair |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 4 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | REGULAR |
| group | GROUP_D |
| stage | GROUP_STAGE |
| venue | Levi's Stadium |