← FIFA World Cup 2026 · group stage · Sat, Jun 27, 12:00 AM UTC · ref: Ismail Elfath, USA
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain win | 58% | 29% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 32% | 3.75 | value: +18% |
| Uruguay win | 16% | 39% | 6.40 | value: +150% ⚠ |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | ⚽ | Álex Baena · Spain |
| 46' | 🟨 | Álex Baena · Spain |
| 54' | 🟨 | Juan Manuel Sanabria · Uruguay |
| 58' | 🟨 | Guillermo Varela · Uruguay |
| 90'+3' | 🟨 | Nicolás de la Cruz · Uruguay |
| 90'+5' | 🟥 | Agustín Canobbio · Uruguay |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Uruguay | Spain |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1153.00 | 877.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| duration | REGULAR |
| group | GROUP_H |
| stage | GROUP_STAGE |
| venue | Estadio Akron |
| 5.00 |
| 6.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 3.60 |
| elo | 1843.42 | 2038.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.53 | -5.11 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | 0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 52.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 89.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 62.40 |
| rest days | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.85 | 1.52 |
| solidity v1 | 1.02 | 1.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 29.07 | 26.60 |
| state index | 0.10 | 1.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | 0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.02 | 1.72 |