← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 15, 01:40 AM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.87 lost leg 2: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.77 won leg 3: New York Mets win in New York Mets v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.85 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 9.40 | $16.80 | +18% | -2.00 | lost |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.77 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.77 | $7.70 | +6% | +7.70 | won |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.65 | $6.48 | +0% | +6.48 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 53% | 3.66 |
| Miami Marlins win | 47% | 2.25 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 2.14 | 1.51 | -29.4% | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 1.65 | 2.50 | +52.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arizona Diamondbacks | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1514.56 | 1486.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.02 | -2.46 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.23 | 1.33 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.40 |