Arizona Diamondbacks v Miami Marlins

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 15, 01:40 AM UTC · scheduled

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.87 leg 2: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.77 leg 3: New York Mets win in New York Mets v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.85	Chaos parlay	$2.00	9.40	$16.80	+18%	—	pending
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.77	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.77	$7.70	+6%	—	pending
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65	Drought fade	$10.00	1.65	$6.48	+0%	—	pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Arizona Diamondbacks win	57%	1.77
Miami Marlins win	43%	2.25

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Miami Marlins win		2.14	2.18	+1.9%
Arizona Diamondbacks win		1.65	1.71	+4.1%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.