← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Sep 14, 11:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Jonah Tong (ERA 4.8, WHIP 1.33)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.87 lost leg 2: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.77 won leg 3: New York Mets win in New York Mets v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.85 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 9.40 | $16.80 | +18% | -2.00 | lost |
New York Mets win in New York Mets v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.85 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.85 | $8.50 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 55% | 1.85 |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 45% | 2.19 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles win | 2.19 | 2.05 | -6.2% | |
| New York Mets win | 1.67 | 1.81 | +8.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| New York Mets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Mets | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1503.62 | 1492.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.73 | -3.54 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 1.23 | 1.23 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 7.60 | 3.70 |