New York Mets v Baltimore Orioles

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Sep 14, 11:10 PM UTC · scheduled

Probable pitchers: · home: Jonah Tong (ERA 4.8, WHIP 1.33)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.87 leg 2: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.77 leg 3: New York Mets win in New York Mets v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.85	Chaos parlay	$2.00	9.40	$16.80	+18%	—	pending
New York Mets win in New York Mets v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.85	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.85	$8.50	+4%	—	pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
New York Mets win	55%	1.85
Baltimore Orioles win	45%	2.19

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Baltimore Orioles win		2.19	2.04	-6.7%
New York Mets win		1.67	1.83	+9.1%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.