Cincinnati Reds v Los Angeles Dodgers

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Sep 14, 10:40 PM UTC · scheduled

Probable pitchers: · home: Nick Lodolo (ERA 5.12, WHIP 1.53)

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Los Angeles Dodgers win	60%	1.65
Cincinnati Reds win	40%	2.46

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Los Angeles Dodgers win		1.50	1.57	+4.6%
Cincinnati Reds win		2.29	2.40	+4.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.