← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Sep 14, 10:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Nick Lodolo (ERA 5.12, WHIP 1.53)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.87 lost leg 2: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.77 won leg 3: New York Mets win in New York Mets v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.85 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 9.40 | $16.80 | +18% | -2.00 | lost |
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.87 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.87 | $18.70 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.73 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.73 | $17.33 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 63% | 1.65 |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 37% | 2.87 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 1.50 | 1.46 | -2.9% | |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 2.29 | 2.81 | +22.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cincinnati Reds | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1461.69 | 1580.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.63 | 1.94 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 1.19 | 1.21 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 8.30 | 3.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.70 |