St. Louis Cardinals v Chicago White Sox

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 13, 06:15 PM UTC · scheduled

Probable pitchers: · home: Michael McGreevy (ERA 3.92, WHIP 1.25)

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Chicago White Sox win	54%	1.79
St. Louis Cardinals win	46%	2.01

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Chicago White Sox win		1.66	1.73	+4.2%
St. Louis Cardinals win		2.01	2.01	0.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.