Tampa Bay Rays v Houston Astros

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 13, 05:40 PM UTC · scheduled

Probable pitchers: away: Hayden Wesneski (ERA 3.35, WHIP 1.03) · home: Freddy Peralta (ERA 4.82, WHIP 1.36)

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Tampa Bay Rays win	55%	1.76
Houston Astros win	45%	2.29

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Houston Astros win		2.14	2.29	+6.9%
Tampa Bay Rays win		1.62	1.65	+1.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.