← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 13, 05:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Hayden Wesneski (ERA 3.35, WHIP 1.03) · home: Freddy Peralta (ERA 4.82, WHIP 1.36)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 won leg 2: Baltimore Orioles win in Toronto Blue Jays v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.39 lost leg 3: Tampa Bay Rays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.77 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 8.50 | $15.01 | +20% | -2.00 | lost |
Tampa Bay Rays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.77 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.77 | $7.70 | +5% | +7.70 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 56% | 1.77 |
| Houston Astros win | 44% | 2.34 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 2.14 | 2.18 | +1.9% | |
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 1.62 | 1.71 | +5.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | — | 14 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tampa Bay Rays | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1540.04 | 1504.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.72 | -1.95 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 0.81 | 0.81 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.40 |