← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 13, 05:37 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Trevor Rogers (ERA 4.15, WHIP 1.21) · home: Dylan Cease (ERA 2.4, WHIP 1.04)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 won leg 2: Baltimore Orioles win in Toronto Blue Jays v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.39 lost leg 3: Tampa Bay Rays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.77 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 8.50 | $15.01 | +20% | -2.00 | lost |
Baltimore Orioles win in Toronto Blue Jays v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.39 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.39 | $13.90 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 58% | 1.76 |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 42% | 23.43 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles win | 2.05 | 2.29 | +11.6% | |
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 1.65 | 1.65 | +0.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | — | 8 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toronto Blue Jays | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1518.08 | 1496.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.44 | 2.98 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.94 | 0.94 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.10 |