← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 12, 08:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Tyler Phillips (ERA 3.51, WHIP 1.33)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: New York City FC win in Real Salt Lake v New York City FC · Match result @ 4.10 leg 2: Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89 leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 21.68 | $41.36 | +73% | — | pending |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.89 | $18.95 | +20% | +18.95 | won |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.89 | $18.95 | +20% | +18.95 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 65% | 1.60 |
| Miami Marlins win | 35% | 2.98 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 1.40 | 1.52 | +8.9% | |
| Miami Marlins win | 2.59 | 2.64 | +2.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Miami Marlins | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1480.30 | 1586.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.93 | 11.85 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 4.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 6.40 |