Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Dodgers

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 12, 08:10 PM UTC · scheduled

Probable pitchers: · home: Tyler Phillips (ERA 3.51, WHIP 1.33)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: New York City FC win in Real Salt Lake v New York City FC · Match result @ 4.10 leg 2: Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89 leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83	Chaos parlay	$2.00	21.68	$41.36	+73%	—	pending
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.89	$18.95	+20%	—	pending
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.89	$18.95	+20%	—	pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Los Angeles Dodgers win	65%	1.52
Miami Marlins win	35%	2.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Los Angeles Dodgers win		1.40	1.52	+8.9%
Miami Marlins win		2.59	2.59	0.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.