← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 13, 12:10 AM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: New York City FC win in Real Salt Lake v New York City FC · Match result @ 4.10 leg 2: Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89 leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 21.68 | $41.36 | +73% | — | pending |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.83 | $8.27 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 53% | 11.74 |
| Texas Rangers win | 47% | 2.24 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers win | 1.90 | 2.19 | +15.5% | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 1.79 | 1.70 | -5.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arizona Diamondbacks | Texas Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1521.55 | 1477.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.07 | 0.06 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 0.94 | 0.94 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.90 |