← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 8, 10:45 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60 lost leg 2: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90 lost leg 3: Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.15 | $8.30 | +32% | -2.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.60 | $5.96 | +15% | -10.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 | Portfolio | $18.99 | 1.65 | $12.30 | +7% | -18.99 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 58% | 1.71 |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 42% | 2.29 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels win | 2.19 | 2.24 | +2.3% | |
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.62 | 1.67 | +3.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boston Red Sox | Los Angeles Angels |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1558.34 | 1418.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.43 | -1.89 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 1.22 | 1.22 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.10 |