← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 8, 11:15 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60 lost leg 2: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90 lost leg 3: Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.15 | $8.30 | +32% | -2.00 | lost |
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.90 | $8.96 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves win | 52% | 1.92 |
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 48% | 2.01 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 1.93 | 1.98 | +2.5% | |
| Atlanta Braves win | 1.83 | 1.86 | +1.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| Atlanta Braves | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atlanta Braves | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1545.95 | 1529.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.38 | -7.62 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.26 | 2.19 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.20 |