← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 8, 10:40 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60 lost leg 2: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90 lost leg 3: Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.15 | $8.30 | +32% | -2.00 | lost |
Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 56% | 1.73 |
| Houston Astros win | 44% | 2.30 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 2.05 | 2.24 | +9.0% | |
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.70 | 1.69 | -0.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Philadelphia Phillies | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1559.44 | 1506.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.04 | 4.53 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 1.23 | 2.19 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.40 |