← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 6, 01:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Jeffrey Springs (ERA 6.37, WHIP 1.5) · home: George Kirby (ERA 4.19, WHIP 1.35)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 lost leg 2: Oakland Athletics win in Seattle Mariners v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18 won leg 3: Milwaukee Brewers win in Cincinnati Reds v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 10.29 | $18.58 | +23% | -2.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Seattle Mariners v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 3.18 | $21.80 | +8% | +21.80 | won |
Oakland Athletics win in Seattle Mariners v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 3.18 | $21.80 | +8% | +21.80 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 66% | 1.62 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 34% | 3.18 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics win | 2.66 | 2.67 | +0.6% | |
| Seattle Mariners win | 1.44 | 1.52 | +5.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| Seattle Mariners | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Seattle Mariners | Oakland Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| elo | 1481.26 | 1414.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.12 | 7.64 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.98 | 0.98 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 5.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.10 |