← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 6, 04:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Kyle Harrison (ERA 3.45, WHIP 1.2) · home: Brady Singer (ERA 4.83, WHIP 1.45)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 lost leg 2: Oakland Athletics win in Seattle Mariners v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18 won leg 3: Milwaukee Brewers win in Cincinnati Reds v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 10.29 | $18.58 | +23% | -2.00 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Cincinnati Reds v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.67 | $6.75 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 58% | 1.70 |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 42% | 2.36 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.50 | 1.62 | +8.0% | |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 2.24 | 2.34 | +4.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — | 12 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cincinnati Reds | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1467.90 | 1582.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.70 | 4.91 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 5.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 5.80 |