← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 6, 05:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Tyler Mahle (ERA 4.25, WHIP 1.29) · home: Aaron Nola (ERA 4.93, WHIP 1.4)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 lost leg 2: Oakland Athletics win in Seattle Mariners v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18 won leg 3: Milwaukee Brewers win in Cincinnati Reds v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 10.29 | $18.58 | +23% | -2.00 | lost |
Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.93 | $9.32 | +11% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 50% | 1.97 |
| Atlanta Braves win | 50% | 1.97 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves win | 1.86 | 1.93 | +3.7% | |
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.73 | 1.92 | +10.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Philadelphia Phillies | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1559.99 | 1545.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.65 | -3.44 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 3.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.20 |