← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 5, 08:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Anthony Molina (ERA 3.77, WHIP 1.05) · home: Zac Thornton (ERA 2.93, WHIP 1.16)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 lost leg 2: San Francisco Giants win in New York Mets v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 won leg 3: Toronto Blue Jays win in Kansas City Royals v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 11.06 | $20.11 | +16% | -2.00 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in New York Mets v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +4% | +14.59 | won |
San Francisco Giants win in New York Mets v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.40 | $13.99 | +2% | +13.99 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 61% | 1.60 |
| San Francisco Giants win | 39% | 2.59 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants win | 2.34 | 2.53 | +7.8% | |
| New York Mets win | 1.57 | 1.55 | -1.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| New York Mets | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Mets | San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1493.44 | 1461.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.23 | -0.25 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 6.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 6.10 |